ELECTRICAL ENERGY FORECASTING - A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH

Col Moin Uddin

doi:10.47981/j.mijst.02(01)2010.70(%p)

Col Moin Uddin MIST

DOI: https://doi.org/10.47981/j.mijst.02(01)2010.70(%25p)

Keywords: Electrical energy forecasting, Forecasted hourly load, Forecasted annual/seasonal average hourly load, Load ratios, Probability density functions of load ratios, Power system expansion planning.

Abstract

Energy demand forecasting is essentially required for the optimal use of energy resources of a country. This paper
presents a methodology to forecast the electrical energy demand of a power system. The methodology is based on the
forecasting of hourly demand. A relationship is developed among the forecasted annual/seasonal average hourly load
and the probabilistic laws of load ratios to forecast the hourly load. The proposed methodology is validated by
applying it to a power system. The methodology is useful for long term hourly load forecasting and also for the
forecast of electric energy requirement of a country.

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