ELECTRICAL ENERGY FORECASTING - A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47981/j.mijst.02(01)2010.70(%25p)Keywords:
Electrical energy forecasting, Forecasted hourly load, Forecasted annual/seasonal average hourly load, Load ratios, Probability density functions of load ratios, Power system expansion planning.Abstract
Energy demand forecasting is essentially required for the optimal use of energy resources of a country. This paper
presents a methodology to forecast the electrical energy demand of a power system. The methodology is based on the
forecasting of hourly demand. A relationship is developed among the forecasted annual/seasonal average hourly load
and the probabilistic laws of load ratios to forecast the hourly load. The proposed methodology is validated by
applying it to a power system. The methodology is useful for long term hourly load forecasting and also for the
forecast of electric energy requirement of a country.
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